Grandma’s Turnovers and Your NFL Bankroll
By Joe Gavazzi Joe Gavazzi Sports
Thursday, September 07, 2017
This Labor Day Weekend my wife made a delicious peach pie. The aromas of the fresh fruit filled the kitchen and pervaded the entire house. I couldn’t help remembering my childhood when I walked into my grandmother’s house during the Christmas Holiday season. She was always making fresh apple turnovers. They smelled and tasted so good.
For most of you, there is a positive remembrance of fruit filled baked goods in your life. But when it comes to the NFL, turnovers are quite a different story. For every turnover in a game, 50% of the people are happy and 50% are unhappy. It all comes down to the bounce of the ball. That is often what makes the NFL such a frustrating sport to handle.
There is little doubt that turnovers are an integral part of the NFL outcome. Below is a chart of the NFL teams with their records from last year including their net turnover margin for the season. Following will be the shocking conclusions and ways in which we can use this information for our profit this 2017 NFL Season.
NFL Turnover Margin
|TEAM||2016 SU RECORD||2016 ATS RECORD||NET TO MARGIN|
|New York Giants||11-6||9-7||-2|
Results are Glaring
After a cursory glance at this chart, you can clearly see the correlation between a positive Net TO Margin and a winning ATS record. In a similar way, the opposite is true. We find negative pointspread records as a result of negative Net TO Margins. More specifically, the following conclusions can be derived.
ANY TEAM WHO HAS A +8 OR MORE NET TO MARGIN FOR THE SEASON (+1/2 OR MORE NET TO’S/GAME) WENT 74-33 SU, 66-39 ATS IN 2016
CONVERSELY, ANY TEAM WHO HAS A -8 OR WORSE NET TO MARGIN IN 2016 (-1/2 NET TO/GAME) WAS 18-64 SU, 28-47 ATS
As you can see from the above conclusions, that is the impact the turnovers had with an AVERAGE of just ½ Net TO/game over the course of the Regular Season. But if you are looking for even more shocking ATS results regarding turnovers consider the following.
90%+ ATS… Pointspread record for any team who has a +3 or more Net TO Margin in a game
75%+ATS… Pointspread record for any team who has a +2 or more Net TO Margin in a game
60%+ ATS… Pointspread record for any team who has a +1 or more Net TO Margin in a game
With the above statistics in mind, you can now understand why fumbles and interceptions are the most influential part of the pointspread outcome in any NFL contest.
It is often said that turnovers equal turnaround. That is, complacency comes from a team who has a high positive turnover margin while a team with a high negative turnover margin spends practice time looking to overcome that deficiency. With that in mind, let’s take a look at Week #1 of the NFL schedule to point out the (4) matchups which have a Net TO Differential of 16 or more TOs from the 2016 Season.
NFL Week 1 Turnover Differential
|TEAM||2016 Net TO Margin||Foe||2016 Net TO Margin||Net Differential|
If my hypothesis is correct, there is a greater propensity than not for Chicago, NY Jets, Cleveland and Tennessee to be pointspread winners this week.
Following this theory throughout the course of the season can put you on the track to many contrary pointspread winners in the NFL. And remember, the next time your team gets a takeaway allow yourself to feel those positive emotions you had when grandma baked apple turnovers during the Holiday Season. They are about to add to your ATS bottom line.